The risk Mbeki runs in his desire to hold on in ANC

Mbeki

Business Day (Johannesburg)
ANALYSIS
3 July 2007

By Karima Brown
Johannesburg

IF, AS most analysts and key leaders of the ruling party agree, there has not been, and nor is there likely to be, any real shift to the left on economic policy in the African National Congress (ANC), why does President Thabo Mbeki appear determined to cling to power by standing for a third term as party president?

Forget the fact that Mbeki's willingness to run again is out of kilter with party sentiment - the president is known for going against the grain, especially on economic policy matters.

I pose this question in the light of explanations that have been proffered in an attempt to justify or explain the logic behind Mbeki's stance on the ANC's presidential succession race.

Third-termers in the ANC, who go around showing three fingers at ANC gatherings (the sign of Mbeki's presidential campaign), argue that Mbeki's continued stewardship of the party is essential if his legacy on economic policy - cited as his major achievement - is to be continued.

Put aside for a moment that Mbeki's achievements on the economic front should be counterbalanced by a recognition of growing inequalities and mass unemployment in SA - the subtext of such a position suggests that unless Mbeki is in charge, the movement is in danger of falling into the hands of populists, whose reign will result in demagogy and runaway inflation, an outcome that would be the death knell for investment both foreign and domestic. This is a fate so untenable for these self-appointed guardians of our economy that some - such as the South African National Civics Organisation - have even called for the constitution to be amended to enable Mbeki to remain at the helm not only of the ANC this year, but also of SA in 2009. Of course, Mbeki himself has shot down any possibility of constitutional gerrymandering, saying he is not in the business of "professionalising power". But why the lack of consistency on Mbeki's part about the presidency of the ANC? He has been at the helm of the ANC since 1997. In 2009, he will have been in government for 15 years, 10 as president.

By insisting, as the third-termers do, that Mbeki alone is the custodian of "sound economics" in the ANC is to suggest that no other contender - including the likes of pro-business types such as Tokyo Sexwale and Cyril Ramaphosa - is capable of continuing Mbeki's economic legacy. Of course, the reality is that both represent nothing different from Mbeki in terms of policy. If anything, both men have the advantage that they stand for the same things , but come minus the baggage.

Of course, those in the Mbeki camp who have their ears closer to the ground know that his real opponent in the ANC is Jacob Zuma. In fact, many believe that Mbeki's insistence to stay in the race has less to do with him wanting to ensure his legacy and more to do with preventing Zuma's ascendancy in the ANC and eventually the country. Given Zuma's mass appeal and support within the party, Mbeki's backers reckon that only a sitting president has the power to prevent Zuma's grab for power.

Which brings me to the next question: what does the Zuma campaign represent in economic terms? Many inches of column space have been devoted to how Zuma is hardly a candidate of the left. I have also warned against the left putting all their eggs into Zuma's basket.

Zuma himself has said that he supports a mixed economy with a strong interventionist state and a strong market, a view that has just been reconfirmed at the ANC's policy conference.

Many analysts have argued that the outcome of the conference points to "business as usual" and can hardly be proclaimed as a victory for the left.

Which brings me back to the question I posed earlier: why is Mbeki determined to hold on in the ANC?

Perhaps part of the answer lies with Mbeki's determination to see a woman at the helm of SA in 2009, although this hardly requires him to remain on as president. In fact, the policy conference has just recommended that the gender-parity principle be extended to the ANC's national executive committee. Mbeki's detractors offer other reasons. They say Mbeki has taken note of the fate of former presidents in Africa, many of whom now find themselves falling foul of the new political elite.

Some even find themselves the subject of investigations involving alleged irregularities during their time in office. Another reason could be that Mbeki is well aware of the fluidity of politics in the ANC and knows that the ability to determine policy is intricately linked to whoever wields state power. While we may never know what exactly motivates Mbeki to stay in the ANC's presidential race, the danger is that in the end, history might well remember him only for trying to outstay his welcome as president of the ANC.

Brown is political editor.